Modelling Tropical Cyclones
A tropical cyclone as seen from a satellite (off the northwest coast of Western Australia). The spiral cloudbands and the eye (dark spot in the centre) can clearly be seen.
Climate model Representation of the climate system based on the mathematical equations governing the behavior of the various components of the system and including treatment of key physical processes and interactions, ...
Models can range from relatively simple to quite complex:
Simple back-of-the-envelope calculations of the radiative temperature treat the earth as a single point ...
Severe Storms Modeling Re-creating Nature inside a computer
Since the early 1960's, meteorologists have studied severe storms with the aid of numerical models.
model - A tool for simulating or predicting the behavior of a dynamical system like the atmosphere.
Model Output Statistics (MOS): The Hydrometeorological Center of the National Environmental Prediction Centers (formerly National Meteorological Center) produces a short range (6 to 60 hours) ...
Model Output Statistics (MOS) A set of statistical equations that use model output to forecast the probability of precipitation, high and low temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation amount for many cities across the USA.
Model Output Statistics
(abbrev. MOS) - the Hydrometeorological Center (HPC) produces a short range (6 to 60 hours) MOS (Model Output Statistics) guidance package generated from the NGM, GFS, ...
Model- A mathematical representation of a process, system, or object developed to understand its behavior or to make predictions. The representation always involves certain simplifications and assumptions.
ETA MODEL
One of the operational numerical forecast models run at NCEP. The Eta is run twice daily, with forecast output out to 48 hours.
MOS- Model Output Statistics. These are numerical representations of expected weather such as forecasted temperatures and precipitation chances. ...
analog model"An empirical forecast model based on the use of analogs. The observed states subsequent to a previously observed analog of the current observed state can be used as a forecast.
Climate Model - Mathematical model for quantitatively describing, simulating, and analyzing the interactions between the atmosphere and underlying surface (e.g., ocean, land, and ice).
Station model: An efficient method of representing weather conditions at a single location graphically on a weather map.
Station Model
A specified pattern for plotting, on a weather map, the meteorological symbols that represent the state of the weather at a particular observing station.
Station Pressure ...
Station model A conventional representation on a weather map using standard symbols of weather conditions at some locality.
Station Model In the meteorological community this refers to a specific set of symbols and a pattern for using them to show the state of the weather at each observing station plotted on the map.
A model used to calculate air pollution concentrations. The model assumes that a continuously emitted plume or instantaneous cloud of pollutants can be simulated by the release of a series of puffs that will be carried in a time- and space-varying ...
BAM MODEL - Beta and Advection Model. Modeling for storm tracks and intensity based on winds and temperatures in several layers of the atmosphere.
Station Model: How a surface weather map is plotted.
Station Pressure: Atmospheric pressure at the station height.
2) MOS (Model Output Statistics) guidance based on Environmental Modeling Centers ETA modelMETARAn international code (Aviation Routine Weather Report) used for reporting, recording and transmitting weather observations.
MOS: Model Output Statistics.
MRF: "Medium Range Forecast" model generated at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). No longer called the MRF but rather GFS (Global Forecasting System).
Numerical models also have difficulty with such events; they are born in data-sparse regions, and most schemes 'paramaterize' convection i.e.
Gaussian model - a way of calculating concentrations of polluting chemicals from stationary industrial sources. The substance goes downwind and disperses (gets weaker) as it travels, according to Gaussian mathematics.
A mesoscale model will have a grid resolution small enough to resolve these features. This usually means a resolution of 25km or smaller. See also meso laps
METAR ...
Numerical Models: Computer models using the fundamental equations of hydrodynamics and thermodynamics with observed initial conditions to forecast the weather or describe the state of the atmosphere or ocean.
baroclinic model A model of atmospheric circulation that, in contrast with barotropic models, does not constrain constant-pressure surfaces to coincide with constant-density surfaces.
Atmospheric models Simulation of the atmosphere's behavior by mathematical equations or by physical models.
Air Quality Model
Mathematical or conceptual model used to estimate present or future air quality.
Air Stagnation ...
Box ModelA computer model used to calculate air pollution concentrations. A box model is based on the assumption that pollutants are emitted into a box through which they are immediately and uniformly dispersed.
A global weather model which is compiled and run by NCEP in the USA and made available for distribution around the world.
AVN - AViatioN model; one of the operational forecast models run at NCEP. The AVN is run four times daily, at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 GMT.
A portable meteorological station used to provide weather data to the ALOHA air model that predicts how a cloud of pollutant gas might dispurse in the atmosphere after an accidental release. Also see CAMEO.
single-column modeling (SCM)An approach to the development and testing of cloud formation and parameterizations.
This is also called the zone of aerationVALDRIFTAn air pollution transport and diffusion model developed to determine pesticide drift from aerial spraying operations in valleys.
CALPUFF is an advanced non-steady-state meteorological and air quality modeling system developed and distributed by Earth Tech, Inc. The model has been adopted by the U.S.
A computerized model that is able to estimate the overland tidal surge heights and winds that result from hypothetical hurricanes with selected characteristics in pressure, size, forward speed, track and winds.
Invest: A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance.
Weather forecasting includes the use of objective models based on certain atmospheric parameters, along with the skill and experience of a meteorologist. Also called a prediction.
Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center recently used a computer model and satellite data to examine climate over the past century.
NUMERICAL FORECASTING The use of numerical models, such as the fundamental equations of hydrodynamics subjected to observed initial conditions, to forecast the weather.
MRF - Medium-Range Forecast model; one of the operational forecast models run at NCEP. The MRF is run once daily, with forecast output out to 240 hours (10 days).
This model, however, gives no account of what maintains the forced vortex in the centre. In the hurricane, the velocity outside the eye goes more like 1/r0.6.
Either an oceanic region with coherent features (e.g. the north Indian Ocean Basin), or a set of bathymetric data for use in numerical models.
Bathymetry
The shape of the sea bed.
 See also: Surface, Weather, Air, Atmosphere, Temperature
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