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Out-of-Sample

Stock market OutlierOut-of-the-Money

Out-of-Sample Forecasting Results
The forecasting models were estimated over the first 2500 data observations and their forecasting ability compared to a random walk (with and without drift) over the remaining sample, ...

 


Out-of-Sample
An item within the range of a sample that does not conform to the mean of the sample.

Out-of-the-Money
A call option whose exercise price is above the current market price of the underlying security or futures contract.

Out-of-Sample Data
Price series used for testing the parameters of an indicator that has not been used for determining the parameters (in-sample data).

Hence, the out-of-sample data plays a crucial role in determining the validity and reliability of the system and is a realistic estimate of how a system should work in real markets.
[edit] References ...

The Realization feature in Investor/RT refers to the process of walk-forward out-of-sample testing (or walk-forward optimization).

When the system fails to hold up in the future (or on out-of-sample data), the optimization process is pejoratively called curve-fitting. However, there is good curve-fitting and bad curve-fitting.

Once you are comfortable with the performance of your system you forward test it - you run it on the out-of-sample price data (the price data that would be immediate future to the backtesting period).

See also: Performance, Trading, Model, Profit, Index

Stock market OutlierOut-of-the-Money

 
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