Out-of-Sample Forecasting Results The forecasting models were estimated over the first 2500 data observations and their forecasting ability compared to a random walk (with and without drift) over the remaining sample, ...
Out-of-Sample An item within the range of a sample that does not conform to the mean of the sample.
Out-of-the-Money A call option whose exercise price is above the current market price of the underlying security or futures contract.
Out-of-Sample Data Price series used for testing the parameters of an indicator that has not been used for determining the parameters (in-sample data).
Hence, the out-of-sample data plays a crucial role in determining the validity and reliability of the system and is a realistic estimate of how a system should work in real markets. [edit] References ...
The Realization feature in Investor/RT refers to the process of walk-forward out-of-sample testing (or walk-forward optimization).
When the system fails to hold up in the future (or on out-of-sample data), the optimization process is pejoratively called curve-fitting. However, there is good curve-fitting and bad curve-fitting.
Once you are comfortable with the performance of your system you forward test it - you run it on the out-of-sample price data (the price data that would be immediate future to the backtesting period).
See also: Performance, Trading, Model, Profit, Index
 
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